This year’s national championship game comes down to one common theme
2007-04-02
This year’s national championship game comes down to one common theme, fulfilling the dream. For Ohio State it was about assembling the finest group of young talent in the country in years, which became known as the “Thad Five”. Florida returned five starters from a national champion team, as they collectively thought they could be part of history by winning back-to-back title for the first time in fifteen years. In either case tonight’s winner will have historical significance given what the expectations of the public and the team’s were.
When you have two great teams like this, numbers help create the story, they just don’t tell the story. Sportsbook.com has Florida as 4.5-point favorite in the title tilt. The Gators are 9-2 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last two seasons; Ohio State is 9-2 ATS in all tournament games this season. Florida is 8-1 ATS vs. teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or points a game over the last two seasons, the Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams allowing less then 64 point a game this season. On the presumption the line remains relatively stable; favorites of 4-6 points are highly profitable 15-5 straight and against the spread.
Steve Makinen of StatFox.com who puts together the Team Statistics page for Sportsbook.com offers this opinion. “Florida's effort on Saturday seemed to have some extra motivation to it, perhaps as if the Gators are finally taking things seriously. Their attack is just so deep and multi-faceted. If they are knocking the 3-pt shot down like they did Saturday, they are virtually unbeatable. I'm just not sure the Buckeyes can match that firepower. As far as trends are concerned, this one to me is stunning: FLORIDA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 72.7, OPPONENT 61.4. With an average victory margin of 11 PPG, that would easily surpass Monday's 4-1/2 point number. I look for Florida to complete its title sweep of the Buckeyes and complete its quest for back-to-back championships.”
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